Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Waiver View: Week 11

Last bye week of the season! Also, we're going to be surprisingly Raider-heavy this week. And that's not for any reason besides the absence of Darren McFadden and the presence of the Saints defense. Also, Palmer's been playing very well this year. And, also, I don't trust any of the replacements for injured QBs this week. That includes Colin Kaepernick, Jason Campbell or Josh McCown, Nick Foles, Byron Leftwich and, of course, John Skelton.

Byes: Vikings, Giants, Seahawks, Titans.
(Assuming) Hurt: Darren McFadden, Mike Goodson, Beanie Wells, Ben Roethlisberger, Kevin Kolb, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, Michael Vick, DeMarco Murray.

Carson Palmer, QB - Oakland Raiders - I'm unsure as to why he's available in so many leagues when he's the ninth-best fantasy QB in standard-scoring leagues. Nonetheless, he's available, all of you Big Ben/Vick/Alex Smith/Eli/Locker/Ponder owners. Sure he throws picks left and right (at least one in each of his last five games) but in a game in which he'll have no choice but to throw, he should be just fine against the league's worst defense (fourth-most points allowed, third-fewest interceptions).
Ownership: 66.8% ESPN, 64% Yahoo!, 62.7% NFL

Andy Dalton, QB - Cincinnati Bengals - He gets a super-soft Chiefs defense that, while they may have shown signs of life against the Steelers Monday night, is still the Chiefs defense. Tehy've been a piƱata for opposing offenses all year and the Dalton-to-Green connection is only getting better, especially with the run game performing at a less-than-stellar level.
Ownership: 90.7% ESPN, 75% Yahoo!, 68.5% NFL

Mark Ingram or Chris Ivory, RB - New Orleans Saints - Assuming the carries are split the same way (16 for Ingram, 7 for Ivory, 5 for Pierre Thomas), Ingram has the upperhand due to the volume. However, I do believe that Chris Ivory is the guy with the most upside, characterized by his 56-yard highlight-reel TD run in the first quarter of Sunday's game. You're hoping for a lot going with either of these guys but nevertheless, they're viable low-end flex options.
Ingram - Ownership: 58% ESPN, 28% Yahoo!, 62.3% NFL
Ivory - Ownership: 2.5% ESPN, 9% Yahoo!, 1.6% NFL

Daniel Thomas, RB - Miami Dolphins - I'm a firm believer in teams struggling on short-week, Thursday night games and this Dolphins/Bills barnburner matchup won't be any different. What happens when Ryan Fitzpatrick, the king of garbage time, actually has no garbage time to play in? Both teams will be running a lot and with Reggie Bush struggling (and again, the short week), Thomas should see an even split in snaps at the very least. Also, the Bills are the worst in the league in yards allowed per carry. I do think Reggie Bush is in for a huge game, Thomas is in for a big game of his own.
Ownership: 50.6% ESPN, 32% Yahoo!, 6.4% NFL

Marcel Reece, RB - Oakland Raiders - This only applies if McFadden and Goodson are out, but still it's hard to ignore the fact that in a game where all the Raiders could do was throw the ball, Reece led the team in targets. More than Heyward-Bey, more than Denarius Moore, and more than Brandon Myers. They'll be playing the Saints who, while they do run up the score, also allow the second-most fanatsy points to opposing RBs. Just hope Reece strikes before the Saints do.
Ownership: 12.3% ESPN, 17% Yahoo!, 25% NFL

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR - Oakland Raiders - If I think the Saints will be giving up a ton to Palmer, someone has to benefit. Of course Denarius Moore will light it up, but DHB is by far the better downfield threat and (especially if Brandon Myers can't go due to the concussion) he'll likely have a season high in targets. H'es on a roll as far as consistency and that looks to continue.
Ownership: 57.8% ESPN, 61% Yahoo!, 69.2% NFL

Danny Amendola, WR - St. Louis Rams - He's clearly the focal point of the passing game and no other target even comes close. He showed last week against the 49ers that the matchup doesn't affect his skillset and utilization in this offensive system. He's been dropped in a ton of leagues since he got hurt but he's obviously fine now and fantasy owners need to jump on this, especially in PPR leagues.
Ownership: 49.1% ESPN, 69% Yahoo!, 38.7% NFL

Greg Olsen, TE - Carolina Panthers - He's coming off of a huge week (9 catches, 102 yards, 2 TDs) so Cam's probably going to keep building that connection since every defense they face has seven guys going after him and the other four after Steve Smith. Olsen and the Panthers get to face a Bucs defense that allows the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs.
Ownership: 45.1% ESPN, 57% Yahoo!, 36.9% NFL

Denver Broncos, D/ST - They might have the easiest schedule coming up. It's unbelievable. This is a rest-of-season pickup. The one downside is that they play their only remaining tough matchup in Week 15 at Blatimore, which in most formats is during fantasy playoffs. But, besides that one matchup, they get, in the otther six weeks, the Chargers, Raiders, Bucs (well, not the greatest matchup), Browns and the Chiefs twice. That has to be the best remaining schedule for a fantasy defense.
Ownership: 70.2% ESPN, 71% Yahoo!, 46.2% NFL

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