Now that Overreaction Week is over, we can start looking at matchups with a better sample size for Fantasy Points Against. While everyone else is worrying about replacement refs and the already-crippled knees of Giants players, you can focus on getting ahead of what's looking like a weaker waiver assortment outside of the tight end position. Really weak. Like, showing-up-at-a-party-and-getting-nothing-but-potato-chips weak (At least get some bean dip). Anyway:
Andre Brown, RB - New York Giants - With Bradshaw likely out for Thursday night's game against the Panthers with a neck injury, and with David Wilson currently in Tom Coughlin's doghouse, Brown becomes an automatic start for teams that don't have two stud RBs. This Panthers defense gave up just under 120 yards to Bucs backs in Week 1. That may not sound like much, but in Week 2, they gave up a combined 160 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns AND 150 receiving yards to Saints RBs, and while the Saints have a committee approach to their backs, there is no real threat to Brown's carries or touches.
Ownership: 1.5% ESPN, 14% Yahoo!, 0.2% NFL
Mikel Leshoure, RB - Detroit Lions - Though there's been no real indication of what Leshoure's NFL-level talent might be, one fact to take solace in is knowing that current starter Kevin Smith was an RB2 option for fantasy purposes on the most pass-heavy team in the league. Despite missing his entire rookie year with an Achilles injury, Leshoure has been practicing at full speed and even though Smith is still in the mix, Leshoure will be a better long-term fantasy back. With Tennessee's porous defense up ahead, look for Leshoure to have a breakout welcoming party despite the split carries, especially if you're ailing from owning Matt Forte or Fred Jackson.
Ownership: 18% ESPN, 32% Yahoo!, 62% NFL
Danny Amendola, WR - St. Louis Rams - You don't need any more proof out of Midwest Welker (as I like to call him). He's clearly the top target on a team that struggles to do anything besides run Steven Jackson into the ground (and at the rate Jackson is getting hurt, Amendola's targets could even go UP from his 16 in Week 2). He's shown no signs of struggle from his season-ending ACL tear in Week 1 of last year, and if you're in a PPR league and he's still available, shame on you for not having picked him up already.
Ownership: 24% ESPN, 46% Yahoo!, 13% NFL
Andrew Hawkins, WR - Cincinnati Bengals - I know what you're thinking: "Who?!?" For deeper leagues, if your team needs a high-upside receiver, you should start with Hawkins. Through the first two Bengals games, I found myself saying the same things over and over:
- "Who the hell is this Hawkins guy?"
- "Man, this defense looks LOST."
- "Why is this Hawkins guys so fast?"
- "Who the hell is this Hawkins guy?"
Needless to say, I'm really high on Andrew Hawkins right now. He put up 86 yards on 8 catches against the Ravens secondary in Week 1. The RAVENS SECONDARY! He followed that up with only 2 catches against the Browns in Week 2, but still put up 56 yards and found paydirt. This guy could turn into 2012's Frisman Jackson, or he could make you look like the smartest owner in your fantasy league.
Ownership: 3.7% ESPN, 8% Yahoo!, 2% NFL
Dennis Pitta, TE - Baltimore Ravens - Tight ends have been incredibly disappointing this season. Outside of Graham and Gronk, the rest of the "stud" TEs have been nothing to look at. Antonio Gates became Antonio Gates just two weeks into the season. Fred Davis has been a letdown thus far (and battling a concussion now). Aaron Hernandez hurt his ankle in one of the most disgusting ways possible. Jermichael Finley is making an early-season push at defending his "Mr. Inconsistent" title. Pitta, along with the following two TEs, may allow you to prevent that tight-end-induced-aneurysm. Pitta has 24 targets through two games. 24 targets in an offense that was supposed to be so Rice-centric that everyone else on that offense was useless for fantasy. As the Ravens sway more and more towards running "Flacco's offense," expect Pitta to do some serious damage on a weekly basis.
Ownership: 13% ESPN, 24% Yahoo!, 11% NFL
Martellus Bennett, TE - New York Giants - Another strong tight end who seems to be seeing his share of targets. He's already seen 16 through the first two games and since the Giants are thin at TE, there is no presented threat to Bennett's playing time. Assuming Eli keeps up the dig-ourselves-in-an-early-hole-so-the-win-looks-more-dramatic act, combined with the fact that they're one injury away from having me start at CB, they'll have to throw a lot in the second half of games. Domenik Hixon will also be missing time, or Thursday's game at the very least, so as the Giants scramble to find a trustworthy slot receiver, Bennett will be the beneficiary of the injury.
Ownership: 36% ESPN, 31% Yahoo!, 25% NFL
Brent Celek, TE - Philadelphia Eagles - When I watched the erratic group of guys slapped together that we formerly knew as the Eagles offense, one thing jumped out at me that I would have never expected: Michael Vick's favorite target is not DeSean Jackson. It's not Jeremy Maclin. It's not even LeSean McCoy (though it probably should be). It's Brent Celek. Since the start of the season (or as fantasy owners call it, "the day McCoy stood still), the Eagles have had to throw 88 times, third-most in the NFL. If Vick somehow keeps up the 3+ turnovers (or anywhere near that), Celek will continue to benefit from the late-in-game, air-it-out situations. Oh, he's also fourth in receiving yards amongst all players.
Ownership: 68% ESPN, 74% Yahoo!, 37% NFL
Arizona Cardinals D/ST - Maybe I'm being a homer and riding the high coming off of the Week 2 upset over the Patriots, but I'm not crazy, this defense is the real deal. For starters, how can you doubt (who I'm pretty sure is) the only defensive coordinator with cornrows in the history of the NFL? Ray Horton figured out the Patriots! Calais Campbell is a monster inside and almost single-handedly dominated the Pats O-line. This is a Cardinals Special Teams unit who led the league last year in blocked kicks and they're still getting better. The Eagles have given up the most fantasy points to defenses in two weeks this season, and they played the Browns in one of them. Vick is very much comfortable with turning the ball over at this point and their O-line is beat up, so the sacks will be there. As long as the Cardinals offense limits the turnovers and keeps it close, the defense will thrive. On top of all of that, there's always the chance that Peterson just embarrasses everyone on his way to a return touchdown (or two (or maybe I'm getting carried away)).
Ownership: 7% ESPN, 19% Yahoo!, 3% NFL
Guys I'm Not As High On, Though Others Seem To Be
Donny Avery, WR - Indianapolis Colts - Sorry, I'm not jumping on an Colts WR besides Reggie Wayne, who should already be owned in every league. Austin Collie comes in and out of games like that crappy dollar you try to use at a vending machine. While Avery seems to be the safest non-Wayne Colts WR, I don't know if he's the best guy to use up a bench slot. He's certainly not startable unless it's a home game, and with a rookie QB, consistency may not be in his favor.
Brian Hartline, WR - Miami Dolphins - He's had a great start to a preseason-less year, but his team situation still sucks and I'm not trusting Tannehill to pick his true favorite targets yet. Davone Bess has yet to have a good game and I'm still a believer in his talents. Also, the way Reggie Bush has kicked off the season, the Fins may look more towards keeping the ball on the ground. Hartline might end up having a career year, but I'm waiting for now.
Kellen Winslow, TE - New England Tight Ends Patriots - Sure he's filling in for a TE in an offense that features two, sometimes three, at a time. He hasn't seen much work in quite some time now, and even though he's in a system that will allow him to see his share, Hernandez's injury gave light to Brandon Lloyd getting 13 targets (over just three quarters of play) and Welker finally getting any targets. Winslow may see significant playing time, but he might just be a body rather than a receiver.
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