A lot of fantasy football owners may be wondering whether or not Randall Cobb is a long-term investment worth making. Initially, I thought that would almost entirely depend on the contractual status of Greg Jennings, who may or may not be brought back to Green Bay, but is set to become a free agent at the end of this season.
But when digesting what the Packers have done with Cobb in Jennings’ absence, it becomes more and more evident that Cobb, who ranks first on the team in receptions, and second in both yards and touchdowns, will have a role in Mike McCarthy’s offense regardless of the status of the rest of the receiving corps. That is, of course, because he may just be the most versatile player on a team that thrives on creating mismatches with constant mixing of personnel and receivers who can play at the X, Y, Z, and so on.
He's a wildcard. A joker, of sorts. And McCarthy's focus of getting him more involved has been extremely obvious this year.
It shows up in the tape from Sunday's win over the Lions.
To illustrate why Cobb is such a threat to opposing defenses, let’s examine two plays from that game. It was by no means Cobb’s best outing, but he was certainly effective, hauling in nine passes including the game winning touchdown.
We’ll look at the touchdown in just a second. But first, let’s take a look at a 15-yard run out of the backfield.
The scenario: 17-14 DET, 3rd & 2 at own 19,
Offensive personnel: 4 WR, 1 TE
Defensive personnel: Nickel (3 DL, 3 LB, 5 DB)
Play: Toss, Y-Crack
Above is the pre-snap alignment. Cobb is highlighted, lining up in the backfield. Now, Cobb’s ability to actually be a patient runner with runningback-like instincts presents a huge challenge for the defense. The way McCarthy mixes personnel packages, defenses are almost always forced to be subbing players in and out to keep up. What happens here is interesting though. As far as the Lions know, the Packers enter the huddle with 4 WRs and a TE, a safe bet they’ll put the ball in Rodgers’ hands to get the first down. However, with the Lions thinking pass, the Packers move Cobb into the backfield and have the Lions out-manned on the strong side (offense’s left) of the formation.
It’s a toss to the left. Circled is TE Tom Crabtree, who cracks down and eliminates the strong side defensive end from the play. They pull the RG (Dietrich-Smith) and RT (Newhouse). Already, Dietrich-Smith and Newhouse are in position to get an angle on the ROLB and the nickel corner who, as you could see, are at a standstill.
Here you can see the space Cobb has out in front of him with an alley, and two lead blockers. Cobb does a nice job showing patience, sets up his blocks well, and will eventually cut upfield and finish the run in north-south fashion.
It may not look like the most spectacular play, but Cobb’s ability to essentially play the RB position gives the Packers, an offense already loaded with weapons, a ton of options and room for creativity. Here, McCarthy uses a personnel package that contains no runningback to get Detroit into a package that puts them at a disadvantage when it comes to run defense. Then, of course, a run that comes relatively easy with little run support on the edge for the Lions. It results in a pick up of 15 yards on the ground on 3rd and short.
We’ve seen Cobb as an acting RB. Now, let’s see Cobb play the role usually occupied by Greg Jennings.
The scenario: 20-14 DET, 3rd & 1 at DET 22.
Offensive personnel: 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB
Defensive personnel: Nickel (4 DL, 2 LB, 5 DB)
Play: Smash concept (hitch-corner)
Here is the alignment, pre-snap, with Cobb lined up in the slot, as Greg Jennings so often is. The Lions are in man coverage, with Jacob Lacey in the nickel lined up over Cobb. James Jones, the outside receiver at the top of the frame takes an inside release, and the safety lined up outside the left hash jumps that route.
A few frames later, as Rodgers sets to pass, he immediately recognizes that Cobb has the corner route in single coverage with the back side safety (Ricardo Silva) having to go from the right hash all the way to the back left corner of the end zone to help .
Like most good receivers, or at least most players with his type of speed and quickness, Cobb easily beats single coverage to the corner. But he's got more work to do. The backside safety actually does a nice job recognizing the smash concept and getting over to the complete opposite side of the field to help. Rodgers puts a ton of air on the throw, and by then, Silva arrives to make a play on the ball.
Now, it's entirely up to Cobb to make a play. He does just that, securing the catch and the Packers victory.
You'll hear coaches and analysts refer to football as "a game of match-ups" all the time, and it's entirely true. The Packers have in Randall Cobb a player who can line up and play any offensive skill position and do so rather effectively.
His ability to line up in the backfield and run the ball effectively means that even when in personnel packages that are pass friendly, the threat of the run still exists.
His ability to line up outside or in the slot and win one on one match-ups means defensive coordinators are taking a risk when leaving him single covered.
In short, he's not just a talented guy playing the role of Greg Jennings while he heals from an injured groin. He's an explosive, versatile player who is capable of creating a ton of mismatches based on where on the field he lines up. For that, he's much more similar to the likes of Percy Harvin than Greg Jennings.
Now, he's far from an NFL stud just yet. As a true receiver, Cobb needs polishing. But his ability to do a little bit of everything has taken him from role player to featured player in McCarthy's offense.
And given more time and more opportunities, Cobb could just end up producing the way Harvin has in Minnesota.
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